Chicago vs San Francisco

San Francisco leads Chicago by 2 points on the TRAIL Index, 71 to 69. Chicago grades better on 4 measures, San Francisco on 7; the same 37 measures from public sources for both.

Scores by each organisation's criteria

• TRAIL Index: Chicago 69, San Francisco 71
• OECD: Chicago 67, San Francisco 72
• UN Tourism: Chicago 64, San Francisco 71
• UNDRR: Chicago 66, San Francisco 69

Theme by theme

• Demand and seasonality: Chicago 70, San Francisco 80
• Economy and jobs: Chicago 92, San Francisco 94
• Climate and hazards: Chicago 65, San Francisco 65
• Water and environment: Chicago 50, San Francisco 63
• Community and housing: Chicago 75, San Francisco 33
• Access and continuity: Chicago 71, San Francisco 88

Where Chicago is stronger

• Hotel bed or room occupancy: 68.2 % average annual occupancy (Choose Chicago, Research & Analysis: Chicago Tourism Performance, 2024). Between 65 and 75: grade 3/4.
• Flood hazard: low (region figure) (World Bank GFDRR ThinkHazard, current (retrieved 2026)). Grade 3/4.
• Rent growth: 5.7 % change in rents over the last 12 months (Apartments.com Rent Report, September 2026). Between 3 and 6: grade 3/4.
• Short-let density: 0.7 short-term rental listings per 100 dwellings (Inside Airbnb & U.S. Census Bureau ACS Profile, 2024). Between 0.5 and 1: grade 3/4.

Where San Francisco is stronger

• Nights in the three busiest months: 28.4 % of annual nights (country figure) (World Economic Forum, TTDI 2026 (data: UN Tourism by United Nations World Tourism Organization), 2024, 2025 moving average). At or below 30: grade 4/4.
• Unemployment rate: 4.2 % of the labour force (California Employment Development Department (EDD), San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City MD Press Release, August 2026). At or below 5: grade 4/4.
• Tropical nights: 0 nights a year with a minimum at or above 20°C (last 5 full years) (ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 2021–2025). At or below 10: grade 4/4.
• Water scarcity: low (region figure) (World Bank GFDRR ThinkHazard, current (retrieved 2026)). Grade 3/4.
• Early warning and emergency plan: An updated, tested plan that names visitors and tourism operators, with warnings in several languages (City and County of San Francisco (SF.gov), 2025-2026). Grade 4/4.
• Tourism crisis and recovery plan: A written destination crisis plan (San Francisco Travel Association, 2025). Grade 2/4.
• Dedicated tourism funding: A dedicated source plus a reserve or stabilisation fund for downturns (San Francisco Tourism Improvement District (SFTID), 2025-2026). Grade 4/4.

Country context (World Economic Forum)

• United States: #2 of 110 in the WEF Travel & Tourism Development Index 2026
• United States: #2 of 110 in the WEF Travel & Tourism Development Index 2026

Chicago in full · San Francisco in full

The TRAIL Index ranking · City vs city · How the index works · TRAIL Studio · Put your city in the pilot